Florida Primary – Before the Count

I suppose I should say something about the vote going on in my home state. Florida is a microcosm of all Americans; seniors, Hispanics, young, blue collar, white collar, black, white, military therefore who wins is not quite as important as why they won and who voted for whom. For instance:

• Did the senior citizens vote for McCain? Or did they vote for a younger man since they know the mental and physical strains on someone in their 70’s?
• Did Huckabee get the ultra conservative vote even though he had few TV ads?
• Exactly who is voting for Romney – older, younger, conservative etc?
• Since Florida has a heavy military presence that frequently need to vote absentee ballot, did they help out Rudy or did they go for McCain?
• Although the votes don’t count, was there a heavy turnout by Democrats or did they stay home?
• Of the Democrats who did vote, did Barack still get all the black votes?
• Did the large Hispanic population continue to vote en mass for Hillary?

I guess we will find out in the next 10 hours. The smart candidate will take advantage of this knowledge to give him an edge next week on Super Tuesday.

Attack Makes Barack Black

Sorry but I couldn't resist that headline. But it is true. Barack had been accused of not being "black enough". He didn't talk "Black", dress "Black" or act "Black". He did not look or act like the prior African American polititians such as Al Sharpton or Jesse Jackson. But once the Clinton's started attacking Barack and even Martin Luther King they. made race an issue. Many of the African American leaders stepped forward to defend Barack even though just a few days ago those same leaders were staying on the sidelines.

It is ironic that President Clinton had once been called the first "Black President" and was strongly supported by the African American community. Perhaps that is part of the problem, not only is Obama challenging Hillary but he is also threatening to take away Bill's image as the first Black President.

I am sure the Republicans are secretely gloating over the liberals fighting over racial issues. And I am also sure that they hope it continues right into the Democratic Convention because the more it tears apart that party the better the chance the Republicans have next November.

The Fight Within A Fight

The other day while listening to Kerry come out in support of Edwards I had one of those “duh” moments when you realize an obvious truth that had previously eluded you. This race for the Presidency is also a fight over who will dominate the Democratic party.

For the past sixteen years Bill and Hillary were the major forces in the party. It was their party. They were the major fund raisers and the key to the Hollywood players. They truly felt that Hillary was entitled to be the next President. They knew their might be major competition from the Republicans, but are shocked that they face a substantial fight for their own ticket.

Obama came out of nowhere and has quickly become a challenge to Hillary. In the past her strategy is to demonize the competition but since Obama is African American, he is almost untouchable. She tried to attack his youth but so far that hasn’t worked. In the past week she and Bill have both tried to show that in spite of his lofty speeches he is not the next Martin Luther King. But that backfired as black leaders such as Sharpton and Jackson, who had previously been on the side lines, stood up to defend Obama.

Kerry’s backing of Edwards might have been another pivotal moment within the Democratic Party. Shortly after that, Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano who had previously been an appointee during Bill’s presidency came out to support Obama. Even though Arizona is a small state it is still a set back for the Clintons when a former appointee of Bills and one of the few high level women are not supporting Hillary.

What also is notable is who hasn't declared their support. The black leaders haven’t yet supported Obama but they took first steps this week after the Clintons attacked him. The other key person who hasn't declared is Al Gore. The fact that he hasn't come out yet in support of Hillary is not surprising yet still is sending a subtle message.

To have a woman and former Clinton appointees now throwing their support to Obama is the sign of a major crack in the Democratic Party. Additionally, there is a growing murmur of anger and even disgust over Bill Clinton. He is starting to hurt Hillary more than help lately and in fact becoming more and more an embarrassment for his party.

So it will be interesting to follow the fight with a fight and perhaps watch not only Hillary’s defeat but perhaps even the end of the Clintons dominance within the Democratic Party.

Iowans Vote their Hearts and Values

Once again the voters didn’t listen to the media and instead voted their hearts and their values. There will be a lot of speeches about comebacks in New Hampshire but what happened tonight is historic.

On the democratic side an untested young black senator beat a senator who had previously been a Vice Presidential candidate and had been campaigning non stop in Iowa with his own and union funds. Barack Obama also beat the front runner, the wife of a two-term President and a two-term Senator herself. Obama appealed to Iowans hearts and minds and the want for someone other than the old tired choices plus managed to win in a state that is something like 95% Caucasian.

On the other hand I am currently listening to some talking heads discuss Huckabee’s win and they still don’t get it. They are saying this is a repudiation of Bush. No, it is a validation of what voters have been saying for the past eight years – they want candidates who share their core moral values and yes, religion. Sorry, Mitt, but not even your money can get past that fundamental truth.

It is interesting to note that this also played out in the second tier of the Republican candidates. In spite of Iowa’s The Register nominating McCain, Thompson, the candidate who some joked never showed up for his own campaign, still managed to run neck and neck with McCain. Again it boils down to values.

In addition Barack, Huckabee and Thompson all share another common factor – likeability. No matter how hard Clinton and McCain will try to spin it – people simply don’t like them. But you know those two old campaigners will have the big guns out starting with the early news shows Friday morning trying to explain how it “really wasn’t a loss”. And the media will go along with it as evidenced by the following quote from Roger Simon’s Politico column today: “Several times we have been declared dead,” McCain said. “`It’s up to you (i.e., the media) who the winners are and who the losers are in the Iowa caucuses.”

I can only hope the voters continue to bewilder the media by continuing to vote for their values and with their hearts.

Huckabee and Hllary - A Fearsome Twosome

All eyes are watching the outcome of the Iowa caucus and straw poll. I don’t know who will win but I know who I don’t want to win – Huckabee and Hillary. Looking ahead to the general election this fall I can’t think of a more polarizing twosome than those two. Hillary vs. Romney, Huckabee vs. Obama even Edwards vs. McCain, actually any other combination is manageable but the choice between Hillary vs. Huckabee will split the red and blue states even further apart.

If liberals have never liked Bush and still refuse to accept him as the president and commander in chief can you imagine their reaction to a former evangelical Baptist minister? Even moderates have a problem with this man who once defamed gays and who said that woman should be subservient to their husbands. Plus true conservatives have a problem with his stands on many issues ranging from immigration to fiscal management.

On the other hand, there is Hillary, whose very names makes conservatives want to run screaming. According to the New York Post’s January 1, 2008 edition a USA Today/Gallop poll shows that Hillary’s negative ratings are now at a whopping 52%.

It’s one thing to disagree or even dislike another party’s candidate but Huckabee and Hillary generate true hatred and even fear of what would happen if elected. A general election pitting these two against each other could very well tear the country apart.