No End Game In Sight

Howard Dean has stated that he wants Obama and Hillary to do whatever it takes to avoid a long drawn out Democratic primary. The Republican Party is going behind the scenes trying to get McCain to be nicer to the conservatives and to have the other candidates drop out so as to wrap up their primaries. But I just don’t see this happening on the Democratic side.

For the first time in the country’s history, we have the first black man and the first woman candidates. Hillary and Barack’s motivation to be president must then be more personal since it isn’t based on just what they believe but also on who they are. The Republicans also have the first Mormon and the first Baptist preacher but Romney and Huckabee could justify that a rejection of them is not personal but rather a rejection of their religious beliefs. So they probably will drop out sooner rather than later.

But for Hillary and Barack, every win is a stamp of approval while each loss is a rejection of who they are and not what they stand for. How could they not take this personally? Yet they also know that a loss is also a rejection of their race or gender. They have to feel responsible to their respective minority and so not only is their goal to be president of the United States but more importantly, to be the very first woman or black man to be president. Talk about pressure….

These internal and external motivations make it nearly impossible for either of them to drop out for it would mean publicly stating that they (and their race or gender) are not good enough for the job. Clinton and Obama have simply invested too much, too much money, too much ego, too much personal identity and sense of worth to now admit defeat. Nor are their respective groups going to let them drop out and potentially disgrace or set back the image and future success of women and blacks. So it is going to be a long primary.

Florida Primary – Before the Count

I suppose I should say something about the vote going on in my home state. Florida is a microcosm of all Americans; seniors, Hispanics, young, blue collar, white collar, black, white, military therefore who wins is not quite as important as why they won and who voted for whom. For instance:

• Did the senior citizens vote for McCain? Or did they vote for a younger man since they know the mental and physical strains on someone in their 70’s?
• Did Huckabee get the ultra conservative vote even though he had few TV ads?
• Exactly who is voting for Romney – older, younger, conservative etc?
• Since Florida has a heavy military presence that frequently need to vote absentee ballot, did they help out Rudy or did they go for McCain?
• Although the votes don’t count, was there a heavy turnout by Democrats or did they stay home?
• Of the Democrats who did vote, did Barack still get all the black votes?
• Did the large Hispanic population continue to vote en mass for Hillary?

I guess we will find out in the next 10 hours. The smart candidate will take advantage of this knowledge to give him an edge next week on Super Tuesday.

Immigration Irritation

After listening to the debates I am tired of being told that we need to be compassionate to the illegal immigrant’s children. That it isn’t their fault that they are here illegally and they shouldn’t be punished if their parents bring them here. Instead the politicians tell us that it is humane to educate the children who are here illegally and provide medical aid.

Bullsh*t. What about our kids? Our own children are getting short changed due to the increase of illegal immigrant children flooding the schools. If we sent even a fraction of illegal aliens back to their own homes then the teacher – student ratio would dramatically improve. We wouldn’t have to worry about bi-lingual classrooms or lowering educational standards to help the young immigrants who didn’t even get the basics in their homeland.

The same is true with medical help. Hospitals in border states are overrun with illegal immigrants using their limited resources. Again, our own citizens are often hurt when after helping the uninsured illegal immigrants these hospitals become bankrupt and close.

If the education and medical care is abysmal in their homelands than wouldn’t we be punishing these children by sending them back? Probably. But that should be their parents concern, not America’s. Why don’t those parents take the energy and deviousness used to get in to the USA and instead use it to better their own country? As for those Americans who think we should help the children, wouldn’t it make more sense and cost a lot less to go to their country and teach them and build hospitals there instead of subjecting the children to what can be dangerous or even deadly trips to get here?

Throughout all of the debates I have yet to hear anyone mention any of the above. Romney comes closest to these ideas while Hucklebee, Giuliani and McCain still preach compassion. Maybe I am cruel and uncaring but we need to save our compassion for our own U.S. children, which does include immigrants who are here legally.

General Impressions of ABC Debate Tonight

Overall Winner/Loser
Winners: Thompson and Edwards
Losers: Romney and Clinton


Republican Debate Overview

Thompson comes across as the adult. Steps in with acerbic answer then steps back while the others fight. Reminds me of his Law and Order role

McCain – boring monotone voice that puts me to sleep and even when he is defending his position he still never sounds excited or angry

Rudy – smiled when introduced, only one to do that, makes him seem friendly. Talked knowledgeably, rattled off facts and figures, came across Presidential. Invoked Reagan a lot

Romney – whining when others attacked him and by the end he didn't seem like his normal cool collected self – seemed rattled. As governor or CEO not used to people talking back or being that critical and he sure didn't like it

Huckabee – Fell back on constitution and God and expected to see flags waving and hear Sousa in the background when he spoke but otherwise he was a no show and seemed to disappear in the second half.

Rudy and Fred only ones to try to lighten up the debate

Ron Paul a total waste of time will be glad he isn’t in the next debate

When camera is on a candidate who is listening to someone else talk:
- Thompson looked asleep
- Rudy looked amused
- Huckabee looked like the proverbial deer in the headlights
- McCain looked blank
- Romney looked pissed off
- Ron Paul looked ….oh who cares?
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Democratic Debate Overview

Obama – looks Presidential – tries to be above the attacks from Clinton, only one who's message is to give people the power to choose, and again showed likability and that unlike Hillary he is just one of the guys by mentioning watching the football game tonight

Clinton – initially sounded/looks exhausted – comes a bit alive when attacking Obama – and more alive, even pissed when Edwards attacked. Talked a lot about Bush and his policies – talking about the past, vs Obamsa/Edwards talk of change. In second half she seemed human when accused of not being likable, and overall better performance in the 2nd half defending her record

Edwards becomes passionate about middle class – also came alive when he turned against Clinton and aligned himself with Obama as agent of change vs. Clinton, Could now understand how he beat Clinton in Iowa

Richardson like Ron Paul, he is wasting his energy and taking time from the legit candidates

When camera is on a candidate who is listening to someone else talked:
- Obama looked thoughtful but tired
- Clinton often looked like she ate a lemon
- Edwards – looked eager to jump in and talk
- Richardson looked confused or angry

Iowans Vote their Hearts and Values

Once again the voters didn’t listen to the media and instead voted their hearts and their values. There will be a lot of speeches about comebacks in New Hampshire but what happened tonight is historic.

On the democratic side an untested young black senator beat a senator who had previously been a Vice Presidential candidate and had been campaigning non stop in Iowa with his own and union funds. Barack Obama also beat the front runner, the wife of a two-term President and a two-term Senator herself. Obama appealed to Iowans hearts and minds and the want for someone other than the old tired choices plus managed to win in a state that is something like 95% Caucasian.

On the other hand I am currently listening to some talking heads discuss Huckabee’s win and they still don’t get it. They are saying this is a repudiation of Bush. No, it is a validation of what voters have been saying for the past eight years – they want candidates who share their core moral values and yes, religion. Sorry, Mitt, but not even your money can get past that fundamental truth.

It is interesting to note that this also played out in the second tier of the Republican candidates. In spite of Iowa’s The Register nominating McCain, Thompson, the candidate who some joked never showed up for his own campaign, still managed to run neck and neck with McCain. Again it boils down to values.

In addition Barack, Huckabee and Thompson all share another common factor – likeability. No matter how hard Clinton and McCain will try to spin it – people simply don’t like them. But you know those two old campaigners will have the big guns out starting with the early news shows Friday morning trying to explain how it “really wasn’t a loss”. And the media will go along with it as evidenced by the following quote from Roger Simon’s Politico column today: “Several times we have been declared dead,” McCain said. “`It’s up to you (i.e., the media) who the winners are and who the losers are in the Iowa caucuses.”

I can only hope the voters continue to bewilder the media by continuing to vote for their values and with their hearts.