Sunday, November 9, 2008

Unintended Consequences

President elect Barack Obama. The country really did it but now we all wonder what will an Obama presidency mean? One thing everyone agrees on is that Obama and his fellow Democrats will be raising our taxes; the only question is what income level will it be based on. I don’t think it really matters as it will be the difference between high and higher taxes. For in addition to federal income taxes, there is also talk of increasing payroll taxes, capital gains taxes, taxes on small businesses and the list goes on and on. That’s just federal taxes; states are also proposing new tax increases. For example, in New York, Bloomberg has already announced higher taxes in the form of tolls on all bridges and has even proposed a tax on plastic bags at the grocery store.

There is, however, good news for some people. No, I don’t mean the low income or no income groups whose outstretched hands will finally be filled. I have a completely different group in mind. For if you find your taxes going higher and higher there is one thing most people could do that will immediately lower your tax burden. What is this talisman to protect you from more taxes? Move to a state without income taxes!

Seven states currently do not have state income taxes: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming. I truly doubt if too many people would be interested in moving to Alaska, South Dakota or Wyoming, especially as I just heard that in this, the first week of November, South Dakota had over 30 inches of snow! That leaves Florida, Nevada, Texas and Washington as possible relocation sites for overtaxed folks from the other 43 states.

If you are an employer who wants to either get out from the burden of your taxes or open a new plant or office you will also consider one other important aspect – right to work. Florida, Nevada and Texas are all right to work states meaning that employees can’t be forced to join a union but instead can decide for themselves if they want to join one. With the potential passage of the new union open voting law, the option to join or not may become an increasingly important one to both business owners and employees.

Once the higher taxes start to impact people, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small boomlet in Florida, Nevada and Texas as people move here to escape their high state taxes. All three states also have large retiree populations and with a lot of people retiring in the near future there is no reason to think that they wouldn’t continue to retire there. This could help the lagging new housing construction and the sales of existing houses in these states. The economy may not be ripe for new businesses, yet I would think that if it were to occur it would happen in greater proportions in Florida, Nevada and Texas. I could also envision that more companies will relocate to these states, too. They offer ideal situations; no state taxes, right to work, lower housing prices than in many areas and not to forget Florida and Nevada’s warm climates.

If you currently live in Florida, Nevada or Texas you are already benefiting from having lower taxes. But if there is a small migration of people and companies to your states then this could mean a faster recovery of the housing market along with increased state revenue from the larger populations. Plus more people mean more business for your local stores. The job market might also increase if companies do start to relocate to your state, too.

I think that it would be extremely ironic if Florida and Texas were to benefit from the increased taxes as proposed by the liberals. Ever since the Bush elections liberals have despised Floridians with an intensity I have never seen before. To a lesser extent they also dislike Texas which is the heart of Bush country and southern Republicans. (Nevada, unfortunately, is Harry Reid’s state and as such is beloved by Democrats.)

So maybe Texans and Floridians should feel a bit smug when they hear how Obama and the liberals plan to raise taxes for they know that they could actually benefit from it! Now all they need to do is make sure the folks who move into their states to avoid higher taxes eventually become good southern republicans who will vote against Obama in 2012!

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